ESPN Writer's Weekend Predictions

Weekend Predictions: Kentucky remains undefeated
February, 27, 2015
By Myron Medcalf | ESPN.com

Here we go again.

This weekend should be one of the best weekends of the year.

Write this down.

5-0. It will happen.

If we all believe. I think.

Maybe not.

Shouldn’t have said that.

But if you’re reading this, it’s too late.

No. 18 Arkansas at No. 1 Kentucky, 4 p.m. ET, CBS, Saturday: Per ESPN Stats & Info, as of mid-January Arkansas had the country’s largest margin between home and road winning percentages since the 2011-12 season. Arkansas followed the script and finished 1-2 in its next three SEC road games, but secured a 4-2 mark over the next six. Still, the Razorbacks have been a different team outside Fayetteville in recent seasons. Somehow, however, they swept Kentucky last season with a pair of overtime wins. So will it happen again? No. Kentucky’s interior defense is allowing opponents a 37.6 percent clip inside the arc, No. 1 in America. Arkansas collects 53 percent of its points (Ken Pomeroy) inside the three-point line. Sure, Mike Anderson's squad is shooting a respectable 36 percent from the 3-point line. But they have to get to the rim to win. And that’s not easy to do against one of the best defenses in recent history.

Prediction: Kentucky 76, Arkansas 66

BYU at No. 3 Gonzaga, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN2, Saturday: Gonzaga has already won the West Coast Conference title. Yet, the Bulldogs wouldn’t benefit from a home loss against a BYU team that might miss the NCAA tournament. BYU, however, needs a victory against Gonzaga -- the only legit tourney team in the WCC -- to enhance its profile. They tussled with the Zags in the first meeting, an 87-80 loss in Provo. Another battle between two of the 10 most efficient offenses in America should be close, too. That Thursday funk against San Diego makes you wonder if Gonzaga is a bit fatigued at this point. Well, don’t let that cloud your thoughts. The Zags want that No. 1 seed and an undefeated WCC record. They are not closing the season with a home loss to a WCC rival. But if you’re looking for the game of the night, look no further.

Prediction: Gonzaga 95, BYU 92 (Overtime)

No. 7 Arizona at No. 13 Utah, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN: Get your popcorn ready for this one. One of the most exciting rematches of the season. Utah. Arizona. A victory would put the Utes in position to secure a share of the Pac-12 crown. Arizona can extend its lead over the No. 2 team in the league and add to its resume with a victory. In the event that chaos ensues and the conversation about the top seeds in the Big Dance shifts between now and Selection Sunday, Saturday’s matchup could be monumental for Arizona. But what has changed since Arizona’s 69-51 win against Utah on Jan. 17? Not much. The Wildcats held the Utes to .89 points per possession in the first meeting. Utah hit 47 percent of its three-point attempts and still lost by 18. Plus, Utah will still have its hands full with Stanley Johnson. Don’t let the hype fool you.

Prediction: Arizona 68, Utah 63


Michigan State at No. 5 Wisconsin, 4 p.m. ET, Sunday, CBS: Late Thursday night, after Michigan State had fumbled its way into its first home loss against Minnesota in nearly 20 years, ESPN.com’s John Gasaway tweeted that the Spartans are outscoring their league opponents by 0.14 points per possession in road games. Plus, they haven’t lost back-to-back games since Kansas and Notre Dame defeated them in late November/early December. Michigan State will fight in Madison. That is just its nature. But Wisconsin is excellent on the defensive boards. The Badgers won’t turn the ball over, and unlike past seasons when Tom Izzo had a Draymond Green or Adreian Payne to help him deal with long athletes like Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker, he’s missing that player this season. The Spartans won’t back down. Not now. They’ll battle. And as the game gets tight late, Michigan State’s 63.6 percent mark from the free throw line will ruin its chances of an upset.

Prediction: Wisconsin 64, Michigan State 61

No. 10 Northern Iowa at No. 11 Wichita State, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN: After UNI whipped Wichita State by 16 points on Jan. 31, Shockers fans offered kudos and a reminder: You gotta come to Charles Koch Arena in late February. And that’s real. Northern Iowa stopped Wichita State’s 27-game winning streak in the Missouri Valley Conference in the first matchup. The Shockers averaged just 0.92 PPP and connected on 21 percent of their 3-pointers. Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet combined to go 4-for-16 from beyond the arc. Seth Tuttle (29 points, 8-for-11 inside the arc) was a boss. That’s the thing. Right there. The venue changes. And in a moment like this, Tuttle will need more help from his teammates. After collecting that season-high 29 points, Tuttle -- a legit Wooden Award candidate -- came back to earth with notable efforts of 15 points and 16 points, respectively, in his next two outings. We will see a more modest Tuttle this weekend. Wichita State won’t let him breathe Saturday. The Panthers are quite talented, but they are not shooting 60 percent from the field again. Things level out on the road. Wichita State won’t lose.

Prediction: Wichita State 67, Northern Iowa 64