Post by 01- PirateDave on Feb 23, 2015 0:00:25 GMT -6
Smaller leagues playing full round robin might reap NCAA tourney rewards
Nicole Auerbach, USA TODAY Sports 5:28 p.m. EST February 22, 2015
The insanity and instability that was major conference realignment tore through the college athletics landscape in recent years.
It resulted in mega-conferences, such as the 14-team Big Ten and a 15-team Atlantic Coast Conference, and some odd geographic fits, such as West Virginia in the Big 12.
But there's one side effect to all of that expansion and league-hopping that has been under the radar until this college basketball season:The smaller, the better.
The two power basketball conferences with just 10 members also happen to be the two best leagues this year, according to their conference RPI. And they'll reap rewards for that in three weeks, on Selection Sunday.
In the latest USA TODAY Sports bracketology, seven Big 12 teams and six Big East teams are projected to make the NCAA tournament. Though the Big Ten might ultimately get the most total bids this season, it largely has been absent from conversations about conference superiority because of its members' inconsistencies (outside of Wisconsin) and damaging nonconference losses to teams such as N.J.I.T. and Incarnate Word.
NCAA tournament bracketology: Projecting the field of 68
The other power conferences will likely earn either the same number or fewer bids than the Big 12 and Big East. Just six of the 15 ACC teams are projected to make the field. Only four of the 12 Pac-12 teams are. Even in a season of resurgence for the Southeastern Conference, it's unlikely the league will get more than six teams into the NCAA tournament. Barring conference tournament craziness, no leagues will send a higher percentage of their members dancing than either the Big 12 and Big East.
Georgetown is one of six Big East teams projected to
Georgetown is one of six Big East teams projected to make the NCAAs. (Photo: Tommy Gilligan, USA TODAY Sports)
What helps 10-team leagues — and hurts mega-conferences — this time of year is conference play and its format. The Big 12 and Big East play double round-robin conference schedules; each team plays everybody in its league twice, home and away.
"What really helps our league is we have really good teams in our league," West Virginia coach Bob Huggins said. "You can play a double round-robin and if you didn't have good teams in your league, it could hurt you. What really helps us is there's (six) teams ranked in the Top 25 and seven teams in the top (41) in the RPI. That's bound to help you. But it could affect you adversely if the teams aren't that good."
That type of depth means plenty of opportunities for résumé-boosting wins, and very few that would be viewed as bad or RPI-hurting losses. Even Texas, a team that's lost six of its last nine and is 1-10 vs. teams in the top 50 RPI, remains in the NCAA tournament field for now and still has multiple chances to gain firmer footing, with three games against top-50 teams before the Big 12 tournament.
Certainly, any league with this many NCAA tournament-caliber teams helps itself by providing members with opportunities to beat good teams. Similarly, if a conference encourages all of its members to schedule tough opponents during nonconference play, that helps the RPI of all of its teams, which in turn helps during conference play. (Big East teams enhanced their nonconference schedules significantly this season.)
b]USA TODAY
Bubble Tracker:[/b] Ranking signature victories of every bubble team
But the size of the league itself matters, too, and there appears to be a benefit from the double round-robin format, particularly for teams in the middle of the pack trying to move up in their leagues. There are fewer teams to step over during the climb, too.
"Subconsciously, it's easier to finish fourth in a 10-team league than it is to finish fourth in a 15-team league," Clemson coach Brad Brownell said. "It's a heck of a lot harder to finish fourth out of 15 teams. ... Finishing seventh or eighth in the ACC, you have to be pretty doggone good now. You're better than a lot of teams in this league, and everybody in this league is trying to win. Everybody puts a lot of money into winning, and facility and coaches. The whole nine yards.
The ACC has some of the nation's best teams at the top of its standings — its five best teams are all ranked in the top 16 — but it seems destined to get just six teams into the NCAA tournament. After this weekend's results, the ACC's seventh-place team is Pittsburgh, which is 7-7 in league play. Three other teams sit at 7-7, and Clemson is half a game back yet in 11th place in the conference. There's a clump of teams in the middle of the league, and out of that clump might very well come only one NCAA tournament invite.
Brownell said improvement throughout the league won't necessarily be reflected in the number of bids. Some of that discrepancy is due to the logistics of conference play — an 18-game league slate in a league with 15 members and many diverse styles of play to prepare for.
USA TODAY
good luck to all!